Retail media is evolving toward a stage where business impact, sales growth and measurement matter more than impressions and reach. The winners of the future will combine screen networks, data, measurement and other marketing into commerce media.
Retail media has become one of the hottest topics in marketing over the past few years. Retailers are building their own media networks, suppliers are increasing their investments, and new technologies, services and operating models continue to emerge around the industry.
There is a good reason for this growth. Retail media offers something that very few other marketing channels can provide: the ability to influence consumers at the exact moment when they are making a purchase decision.
Still, I believe the discussion around retail media too often focuses on the wrong things. We talk about the number of screens, reach, impressions and contact prices. We talk about technologies, software and artificial intelligence. All of these are important areas, but they do not yet answer the question that ultimately matters most to both retailers and suppliers.
How does retail media change the advertiser’s business?
The same question once transformed digital marketing. I believe that over the next five years, it will also transform retail media.
Retail media resembles the early years of digital marketing
I have worked in digital marketing for more than a decade. When I look at the current development stage of retail media, I see many of the same patterns that characterized the early years of digital marketing.
Back then, the discussion largely revolved around visibility. Websites wanted more traffic, banners wanted more impressions, and campaigns were evaluated through contact volumes. In many cases, the most important question was how much visibility could be bought with the available budget.
Gradually, the market matured. Companies started demanding more. Visibility alone was no longer enough. Marketing leaders wanted to know how many leads, sales, customers and revenue marketing generated. At the same time, measurement, attribution and analytics developed rapidly.
Today, few marketers make significant investments based only on visibility. Campaign success is increasingly evaluated through business impact. Business goals themselves are not new, but the ability to demonstrate marketing’s effect on them is.
In my view, retail media is following exactly the same path.
At the moment, the discussion still focuses largely on reach, contacts and impressions. They are important metrics, but they do not alone show how much value a campaign has produced. The next stage of development will be the same as it once was in digital marketing: a shift from visibility to business impact.
The screen network is the foundation of retail media
Sometimes the discussion around retail media creates the impression that data, measurement or artificial intelligence are replacing the importance of screen networks. I do not believe this is true.
A high quality screen network is the foundation of retail media. Without screens, there is no in store retail media.
The number, location, visibility, reliability and coverage of screens directly affect how attractive a media network is to advertisers. The broader the network, the more reach it can provide. The better the screens are positioned as part of the customer journey, the greater their opportunity to influence the purchase decision.
A screen network is not just technical infrastructure. It is the media asset of retail media.
At the same time, the role of software continues to grow. Campaign management, content distribution, targeting, reporting and optimization are increasingly based on technology. The larger the network grows, the more important it becomes to manage it efficiently.
Screens, software and infrastructure form the foundation on which everything else is built. However, they are not enough on their own. The real competitive advantage comes from how well they are used.
Data is always needed
One thing where I disagree with parts of the industry is the idea that data is just one part of retail media.
In my view, data is always needed. Not only in retail media, but in all marketing.
The history of digital marketing has shown that the best results are achieved when decisions are based on information rather than assumptions. The same applies to retail media.
Retailers have access to exceptionally valuable data. Purchase data shows what products customers actually buy. Loyalty customer data helps understand behavior over time. Ecommerce data completes the picture of the customer’s digital buying journey, and location data brings insight into local differences and regional demand.
A single data point does not create miracles. The real value emerges when these data sources are combined as part of marketing. Only then can we understand what kinds of messages work, where they work and for whom they work.
At the same time, retail media begins to move in the same direction we have already seen in search advertising, social media and programmatic buying.
Retail media’s biggest competitor is not another retail media network
From the marketer’s point of view, retail media does not exist in its own world. Every euro spent on marketing competes with other marketing euros.
A supplier does not only decide whether to invest its budget in retailer A or retailer B’s retail media. The same budget could also be used for Google advertising, Meta advertising, influencer marketing, YouTube campaigns or television advertising.
For this reason, retail media cannot be viewed as an isolated channel. It must be part of the broader marketing mix.
The better retail media’s impact can be compared with the impact of other marketing channels, the easier it becomes for marketers to make investment decisions. This is one reason why measurement is becoming increasingly important.
Marketers do not only want to know how many times a campaign was shown. They want to understand what the campaign achieved.
Measurement will define the next growth leap
In my view, the most important development direction for retail media over the next five years is not artificial intelligence. Nor is it the growth in the number of screens.
It is the development of measurement.
Retail media’s special strength lies in its ability to connect marketing with purchase behavior in a way that few other media environments can. This is also one reason why retail media has become such a significant part of marketers’ plans.
For many operators, reporting still focuses on impressions, contacts or estimated reach. These are useful metrics, but they are not enough on their own to justify investments in an increasingly competitive fight for marketing budgets.
As measurement develops, retail media begins to gain the same position as other marketing channels. The discussion gradually shifts from visibility toward business impact, sales growth and demonstrating the real value of marketing.
Commerce media is the natural next stage
I believe that over the next five years, we will hear more and more about commerce media.
This is not about retail media being replaced by a new concept. It is about the market starting to understand the same principles on a broader scale.
The success of retail media has been built around three key strengths. The first is the retailer’s first party data, the second is proximity to the purchase event, and the third is the ability to measure marketing’s impact on real purchase behavior. These are the factors that have made retail media so interesting to marketers.
Commerce media is partly built on the same principles, but its perspective is broader. The focus is not only on the purchase event, but on the consumer’s service and buying context. What commerce media operators have in common is the ability to use their own first party data and customer understanding in situations where the consumer has an identifiable interest in a certain topic, service or product category.
This can be seen across different industries. In travel services, the consumer is planning a trip. In banking services, they are considering financial decisions. In mobility services, they are planning how to move from one place to another. In retail, they are comparing products and making purchases. What all these environments have in common is that the consumer is actively making choices and leaving behind valuable first party data.
From this perspective, retail media is one of the most developed areas of commerce media. Retail media’s special strength is its close connection to the purchase event and its ability to support closed loop measurement, where marketing impact can be connected to real purchases. Commerce media, in turn, expands the same thinking to other consumer businesses where commercial context, customer understanding and first party data create value for marketers.
From the marketer’s point of view, this is a significant shift. Previously, media has largely been viewed through channels. With commerce media, attention increasingly shifts to the context in which the consumer is reached, what is known about them and how the impact of marketing can be measured.
Artificial intelligence accelerates development
Artificial intelligence will undoubtedly change retail media and commerce media significantly. Content production becomes more efficient, targeting becomes more precise, campaign optimization becomes more automated, and reporting becomes faster.
Artificial intelligence does not, however, change the fundamental goal of marketing. Ultimately, the role of marketing is still to grow the business.
Artificial intelligence helps do things more efficiently, but it does not remove the need to understand customers, measure impact or develop marketing based on data.
That is why I believe the biggest winners will not be the operators that adopt the most artificial intelligence. The winners will be the operators that succeed in combining screen networks, data, measurement, technology and marketing into one functioning whole.
Conclusion
The future of retail media will not be decided by a single technology, one metric or one media channel. It will be built on the interplay between high quality screen networks, strong data, transparent measurement and the rest of marketing.
Over the next five years, the most successful operators will not necessarily be those with the most screens or the largest data masses. The most successful will be those that can connect these elements into the overall marketing mix and demonstrate their business impact.
As the market matures, the discussion will increasingly move from individual channels to how data, media, measurement and customer understanding are used to grow the business. At that point, retail media will be seen as part of a broader commerce media whole, where the common denominators are first party data, commercial context and the ability to demonstrate the true impact of marketing on business.
Tom Norrgrann is a digital marketing expert and Head of SEO & AI at Agency Bobble. He has over 12 years of experience in search engine optimization, content strategy, analytics, and performance driven digital marketing.
