Retail media has become one of the hottest topics in marketing over the past few years. Retailers are building their own media networks, brands are increasing their investments, and new technologies, services, and operating models continue to emerge around the industry.
There is a good reason for this growth.
Retail media offers something that very few marketing channels can provide: the ability to influence consumers at the exact moment they are making a purchase decision.
Yet I believe the conversation around retail media is too often focused on the wrong things.
We spend a lot of time talking about the number of screens, reach, impressions, and contact prices. We talk about technology, software platforms, and artificial intelligence. All of these are important components, but they still do not answer the question that ultimately matters most to both retailers and brands:
How does retail media impact business results?
This is the same question that transformed digital marketing years ago. I believe it will transform retail media over the next five years as well.
Retail Media Reminds Me of the Early Days of Digital Marketing
I have worked in digital marketing for more than a decade. When I look at the current stage of retail media's development, I see many similarities to the early years of digital marketing.
Back then, the conversation revolved around visibility. Companies wanted more website traffic. Banner campaigns were judged by impression volumes. Success was often measured by the number of contacts generated. In many cases, the most important question was simply how much visibility could be purchased with a given budget.
Over time, however, the market matured.
Businesses started demanding more. Visibility alone was no longer enough. Marketing leaders wanted to know how many leads, customers, sales, and revenue marketing actually generated. At the same time, measurement, attribution, and analytics evolved rapidly.
Today, very few marketers make significant investments based solely on visibility. Marketing performance is evaluated through business impact.
I believe retail media is following exactly the same path.
Today, much of the discussion still revolves around reach, contacts, and impressions. These are important metrics, but they do not tell the full story of the value a campaign has created.
The next stage of development will be the same one digital marketing went through years ago:
A shift from visibility to business impact.
Screen Networks Are the Foundation of Retail Media
Sometimes the retail media discussion creates the impression that data, measurement, or artificial intelligence will somehow replace the importance of screen networks. I do not believe that is true.
A high quality screen network is the foundation of retail media.
Without screens, there is no in store retail media.
The number of screens, their locations, visibility, reliability, and coverage directly influence how attractive a media network is to advertisers. The larger the network, the more reach it can provide. The better screens are integrated into the shopper journey, the greater their ability to influence purchasing decisions.
A screen network is not merely technical infrastructure. It is a media asset.
At the same time, software platforms are becoming increasingly important. Campaign management, content distribution, targeting, reporting, and optimization are all becoming more technology driven. As networks continue to grow, the ability to manage them efficiently becomes increasingly critical.
Screens, software, and infrastructure form the foundation upon which everything else is built.
However, while they are essential, they are not enough on their own.
The real competitive advantage comes from how effectively they are utilized.
Data Is Always Necessary
One point where I disagree with some industry conversations is the idea that data is simply one component of retail media.
In my view, data is always necessary.
Not only in retail media, but in all forms of marketing.
The history of digital marketing has shown that the best results are achieved when decisions are based on information rather than assumptions. The same applies to retail media.
Retailers possess exceptionally valuable data assets. Purchase data reveals what consumers actually buy. Loyalty data helps build a long term understanding of customer behavior. Ecommerce data provides insight into the digital customer journey. Location data helps uncover regional differences and local demand patterns.
A single data point rarely creates meaningful value.
The real value emerges when these different data sources are combined and integrated into marketing efforts.
Only then can marketers begin to understand which messages work, where they work, and for whom they work.
At the same time, retail media begins moving in the same direction we have already seen in search advertising, social media advertising, and programmatic buying.
Retail Media's Biggest Competitor Is Not Another Retail Media Network
From a marketer's perspective, retail media does not exist in isolation.
Every marketing dollar competes against every other marketing dollar.
A brand is not simply deciding whether to invest in Retailer A's retail media network or Retailer B's network. The same budget could be allocated to Google Ads, Meta advertising, influencer marketing, YouTube campaigns, or television advertising.
This is why retail media cannot be viewed as a standalone channel.
It needs to be part of the broader media mix.
The easier it becomes to compare retail media performance with the performance of other marketing channels, the easier it becomes for marketers to make investment decisions.
This is one of the key reasons measurement is becoming increasingly important.
Marketers do not simply want to know how many times a campaign was displayed.
They want to understand what the campaign actually achieved.
Measurement Will Drive the Next Wave of Growth
In my opinion, the most important development in retail media over the next five years is not artificial intelligence.
Nor is it simply the growth of screen networks.
It is the evolution of measurement.
In digital marketing, we have become accustomed to evaluating marketing as a connected ecosystem. Search advertising, social media, email marketing, display advertising, and web analytics all contribute to a shared view that helps marketers understand business impact across channels.
Retail media is only beginning this journey.
Many organizations still focus reporting on impressions, contacts, or estimated reach. These metrics are useful, but they are no longer sufficient to justify investments in an increasingly competitive marketing environment.
As measurement evolves, retail media will begin to earn the same status as other marketing channels.
At that point, the conversation will move away from visibility and toward business outcomes.
Commerce Media Is the Natural Next Step
I believe that over the next five years we will hear much more about commerce media.
This is not simply a new industry buzzword.
It reflects a fundamental shift in how marketing is viewed.
Retail media describes a single marketing channel. Commerce media describes a much broader ecosystem.
In addition to retail media, it includes ecommerce, loyalty environments, digital marketing channels, marketing automation, data, measurement, and other customer touchpoints.
This shift in thinking is significant.
When marketing is viewed through the lens of commerce media, individual channels are no longer the focus. Commercial outcomes become the focus.
Customers do not think in channels.
They see messages across multiple environments, search online, visit ecommerce sites, enter physical stores, and ultimately make a purchase.
Commerce media seeks to understand and optimize this entire journey.
AI Will Accelerate the Transformation
Artificial intelligence will undoubtedly have a significant impact on retail media.
Content creation will become more efficient. Targeting will become more precise. Campaign optimization will become increasingly automated. Reporting will become faster, and analytics will become easier to interpret and act upon.
However, AI does not change the fundamental purpose of marketing.
Marketing still exists to drive business growth.
AI helps organizations execute more efficiently, but it does not eliminate the need to understand customers, measure impact, or continuously improve marketing through data.
For this reason, I do not believe the biggest winners will simply be the companies that adopt the most AI.
The winners will be those that successfully combine screen networks, data, measurement, technology, and marketing into a single integrated ecosystem.
Final Thoughts
The future of retail media will not be determined by a single technology, a single metric, or a single media channel.
It will be built on the combination of strong screen networks, high quality data, transparent measurement, and seamless integration with the broader marketing ecosystem.
Over the next five years, the most successful organizations may not necessarily be those with the largest screen networks or the biggest datasets. The leaders will be those that can bring these elements together, integrate them into the wider marketing mix, and demonstrate clear business impact.
At that point, we will no longer be talking only about retail media.
We will be talking about commerce media.
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Tom Norrgrann is a digital marketing expert and Head of SEO & AI at Agency Bobble. He has over 12 years of experience in search engine optimization, content strategy, analytics, and performance-driven digital marketing.
